Carnegie Endowment (103)

Judy Asks: Does May Need Merkel for a Brexit Deal?

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe's role in the world.

Trump's Foreign Policy Is Neither Strategic nor Competent

In 2017, the United States is contending with a world whose challenges would be excruciatingly difficult even for the most experienced and well-managed administration. Nine months in, President Trump has demonstrated neither strategy nor competence on foreign policy.

Deadly Overconfidence: Trump Thinks Missile Defenses Work Against North Korea, and That Should Scare You

Could a president's overconfidence in U.S. defensive systems lead to deadly miscalculation and nuclear armageddon? Yes, it could.

Do Trump's Foreign Business Entanglements Threaten Our Democracy?

The Trump Organization's continued business dealings with foreign governments, both at home and abroad, challenge the core principles of U.S. democracy.

The Dog That Did Not Bark: The Army and the Emergency in India

The Indian military chose to stay out of politics when Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency rule, despite numerous factors that might have facilitated an intervention.

Europe's Illusionaries

Bashing the United States is no substitute for Europe's strategic helplessness.

Trump and the Iran Nuclear Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to undo the Iran Nuclear Deal hands leverage over to Iran, and reduces international confidence in the United States.

Understanding Cyber Conflict: 14 Analogies

Understanding Cyber Conflict draws lessons from past technological disruptions to inform and shape responses to today's cyber challenges.

The 19th Party Congress and Chinese Foreign Policy

Comparing Xi Jinping's report at the 19th Party Congress to earlier such documents provides an excellent indicator of continuities and recent changes in Chinese foreign policy.

Between Disarmament and Deterrence

The Nobel Committee awarded its annual peace prize to the laudable goal of nuclear disarmament. But civil society actors and governments concerned about disarmament should not be tempted to rest on the laurels of this achievement.

Is Trump Acting in the U.S. Interest?

By applying an “America first” policy to foreign affairs, President Donald Trump may isolate the United States on the world stage like never before.

Have Hamas and Fatah Finally Reconciled?

The recent Hamas-Fatah reconciliation may reflect shifting dynamics in negotiations on Gaza, both regionally and internationally.

Austria Swings Right, and How

Austria's new chancellor is poised to form a nationalist-conservative coalition with a party whose leader attended neo-Nazi meetings in his youth.

Algeria's Entwined Economic and Political Policy

Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia's “helicopter money” policy is a short-term fix not only to Algeria's economic problems, but also to its precarious political equilibrium. | عربي

Can Hamas-Fatah reconciliation deal succeed?

Egypt and Palestinian parties have strong tactical reasons to make the reconciliation deal work.

Letter From Washington, Where People Used to Listen to Us

European companies are doing business in Iran, undeterred by Trump's rhetoric. This is surely a reason for the United States to be concerned about its own future influence.

The Trump Administration and the Iran Nuclear Deal: Analysis of Noncompliance Claims

A tracker that presents each allegation of non-compliance made by the Trump administration and assesses them.

Why Is It So Difficult to Count Dead People?

Given the serious problems of measurement, any statistic on violent deaths should be treated with caution.

Xi's Power Grab Might Drag the Economy Down

China's 19th Party Congress is all set to confirm President Xi Jinping's consolidation of power. But for many China watchers, the question is whether economic reforms will accelerate afterwards.

Ditching Iran Deal Is a Serious Mistake-by Any Measure

Every one of the very real challenges Iran poses in the world would be made more difficult to manage if Iran were freed of the nuclear limits agreed in the JCPOA, and every one of them would be made more difficult if the United States isolates itself from its partners.

Seven Reasons Why Putting U.S. Nukes Back in South Korea Is a Terrible Idea

If there were real military or political benefits to redeploying nuclear weapons in South Korea, this idea would be worth a serious review, but redeploying them today makes no sense, and indeed could exacerbate the current crisis over North Korea's nuclear threats.

Eastern and Central Europe's Strategic Provincialism

Geopolitical myopia among the elites of NATO's new member states is helping to preserve an unstable “grey zone” in post-Soviet Europe.

China and the World After 19th Party Congress

The upcoming 19th Party Congress and top political appointments will determine what course China will take in the future under President Xi Jinping's leadership.

European Nations Must Come Together on Chinese Investment

As Europe becomes a preferred playing field for Chinese foreign direct investment, leaders of bloc nations have been drawn into a debate on the creation of a long-anticipated screening mechanism.

Germany's Nuclear Education: Why a Few Elites Are Testing a Taboo

Days after the 2016 U.S. election, a small group of German experts began to publicly debate whether Berlin should pursue one of three nuclear options. Although the shallow debate was short-lived, over time this effort may turn out to be a bellwether of fundamental change in Germany's national ...

Internal Divides Behind the Kurdistan Referendum

The Kurdistan Region's “yes” vote in the independence referendum does not translate to unconditional support for independence in the short term. | عربي

Even After Privacy Verdict, India Is Easy Game for Internet Monitoring

The current legal framework in India offers insufficient safeguards against mass surveillance and the gathering of big data tranches.

Judy Asks: Should the Iran Deal Be Scrapped?

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe's role in the world.

Pakistan and Trump: Ready for a Bargain?

India should focus on shaping the outcomes of the U.S.-Pakistan negotiations, since those talks will not only influence the situation in Afghanistan but could also have significant implications for the subcontinent as a whole.

Is Putin Losing Control of Russia's Conservative Nationalists?

Supporters of a free Russia have long dreamed of a day when the Orthodox Church is separate from the state and when elected officials are unafraid to oppose Kremlin ministers. The latter is certainly happening, but among those who are taking advantage of this new freedom first are zealots who speak ...

Ukraine Reform Monitor: October 2017

President Poroshenko's power consolidation-and pushback against it-is the hallmark of Ukrainian politics heading toward elections in 2019. Yet reform progress is being made, even if the pace remains slow.

Ukraine Reform Monitor: October 2017

President Poroshenko's power consolidation-and pushback against it-is the hallmark of Ukrainian politics heading toward 2019 elections. Yet reform progress is being made, even if the pace remains slow.

Alexei Navalny's Permanent Revolution

Time is on Navalny's side. If he doesn't commit a blunder that disenchants potential voters, and if the authorities don't take the brute force approach of locking him away for a number of years, he could emerge as a key opposition figure between 2018 and 2024.

Wolfgang Schäuble's Europe

In leaving the German finance ministry, Europe's most influential politician leaves a big gap in the intellectual direction of the EU.

Britain's Generation Gap

The UK is preparing to leave the EU at precisely the point in history when the appeal of anti-European nationalism is in terminal decline.

Beyond Business as Usual: On India and the EU

To counter the rise of isolationist, unilateral, and authoritarian forces, India and the Europe must strengthen their relationship beyond mere economic and transactional arrangements.

Catalonia and European Democracy

As it intensifies, the Catalan crisis will have wider ramifications for EU politics. One crucial element revolves around the state of European democracy.

Are Tillerson's Days Numbered?

Secretary Tillerson has good instincts on many foreign policy issues and is ready to provide independent advice. But his road ahead won't be easy, particularly given that Donald Trump is ready and willing to undercut him.

Tweedledee, Tweedledum

Revolving-door practices between the Congress and the BJP, facilitated by a lack of ideological or programmatic differentiation between the parties, are particularly prominent in Gujarat and undermine the idea of a principled opposition.

Implement the JCPOA

Instead of putting the JCPOA in jeopardy, the U.S. would be well advised to permit the implementation of the agreement to go forward and, together with other parties, encourage the IAEA to vigorously pursue its obligations under the agreement.

Macron, the Atlanticist

France is committed to taking on more responsibility for the defense of Europe without alienating or competing with NATO.

A Past That Divides: Russia's New Official History

In recent years, the Russian government has formulated a policy on the country's history that aims to consolidate the nation around a single official version of the past. However, because this single version of official collective memory is not acceptable to all citizens, this policy is causing ...

China and Russia's Dangerous Entente

Chinese and Russian leaders won't always agree, but their deepening cooperation and mistrust of the U.S. is here to stay. Unfortunately, American leaders have shown few signs that they know how to navigate this new reality, let alone manage the competition among great powers as non-Western countries ...

More Than Paper: How Nuclear Ban-Treaty Advocates Can Really Advance Disarmament

If states truly want to help eliminate nuclear weapons, there are a few meaningful steps they can take to address urgent threats to the cause of global disarmament.

Sisi's Expanding Authority

The Egyptian regime's attempt to expand the presidential term to six years is another move to consolidate the power of the presidency. | عربي

Securing the Peace after the Fall of ISIL

Planning for the future of Iraq after ISIS will be essential to consolidating coalition successes and avoiding yet another recurrence of insurgency and state failure.

Judy Asks: Can Spain Keep Together?

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe's role in the world.

Raja Mandala: India and Djibouti's Geopolitical Scrum

President Kovind's visit to Djibouti and Ethiopia suggests India is finally waking up to the geopolitical significance of the Horn of Africa.

Modern Biotechnology and India's Governance Imperatives

India needs to craft a more streamlined regulatory system and take other concrete steps to support growth in its domestic biotech sector.

Democracy Derailed?

Recent moves by the Tunisian government may signal a major backsliding in the country's democratic development.